Black Swan

 

 

 Have you heard of black swans, not birds, but events? I learned of them some years back in relation to my writing. Recently because of some events, I did a search online for a succinct definition and AI provided this one:

"black swan" refers to a highly unpredictable, rare event with massive, paradigm-shifting consequences, popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who defined them by three traits: they are outliers (beyond normal expectations), have extreme impact, and are rationalized with hindsight as if they were predictable. Examples include the 2008 financial crisis or 9/11, with the name stemming from the historical European belief that all swans were white until black swans were discovered in Australia. While often negative, black swans can also be positive, like the rise of the internet, but the common usage focuses on major disruptive events.

Life provides more than a few of them at certain times, but we are never really prepared for them or they'd not be black swans.

 

Most recently, not far from where I live, a woman, living alone, was taken from her home, in the dead of the night, stirring up more than a little concern, added to by the fact of her daughter being a television news celebrity. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The kidnapping of an 84 year old woman would be considered unusual in the US, but what would be the motive in this case? It is a black swan event for the family at the least, but this has impacted the country beyond the loved ones  and friends. I relate to it because it's not that far from where I live,

maybe five miles by air, and in my kind of home situation. Ours is not, of course, a million dollar home, but is in the desert terrain. The photo of her home is probably from a drone or helicopter.

 

There are few clues, other than some blood splatter at the front door, that police have identified as hers. Scary as well as rare. It has ended up with the FBI and other agencies besides Pima County Police. It is on the news, far and wide. 

 

I relate to it for the location but also her age. So far, no return but some probably fake ransom notices but no proof that she's still alive. Hers is considered to be a safe neighborhood, but what is safe these days?

 

On YouTube, I've gotten into watching two true crime networks, A&E and 48 Hours, but try to only look where the killers have been caught and usually been found guilty. Things like this Black Swan provide no such comfort. What I have seen on those crime programs is how often illegal drugs are involved. Unlikely to be the case here. The other reasons murders are committed are within families, desire for money, hiding a secret. Ex relationships seem to sometimes end in violent results, male or female. Finally there are pedophiles and sexual predators, along with random killers, who do it for the experience... 

 

Here is a link to one of the news investigators with more info she has gotten from a reliable source.  The Suspect according to that source.  Personally, I have no clue and have heard multiple theories.

 

Below is one of the stories that I've watched. Not connected, but an example of police work, sometimes, with cold cases, years later. Hope the one in Tucson is solved sooner and with the return of a live victim. The longer it goes on, the less likely that this Black Swan will have any kind of happy ending.

 

Janet's Secret

Imbolc

With so much going on in the United States, it might seem what I'd write about. I've learned the hard way that it's best not to write in the heat of a time. When more comes out, and it always does, it can turn everything upside down. Besides, two things can be true but what do they end up meaning? So, at least for now, I am sticking to truths closer to home and things that I think can lead to a positive way to live. Hence--

image from Stencil on the aspects of Imbolc

 

 

It's not today, but rather tomorrow. A Celtic seasonal time, when the ewes have their lambs. We, as sheep owners, often saw the first lambs at this time. For those of us who celebrate a Celtic Year, Imbolc, in the Northern Hemisphere, it is from February1st to the evening of the 2nd, and the true beginning of spring. (I know, much of the US might find that ironic at the snowy moment.)

Imbolc (you do not pronounce the b) means ewe's milk. Whether on a farm or not, this is the time of stirrings of new life, what might be called the quickening when life comes back from where it's been dormant. 

"It is the promise of renewal, of hidden potential, of earth awakening and life-force stirring. Here is hope. We welcome the growth of the returning light and witness Life's insatiable appetite for rebirth. It is a time to let go of the past and look to the future, clearing out the old, making both outer and inner space for new beginnings." from the Goddess and the Greenman

This is one of four festivals to mark the seasonal changes to the year. Imbolc being first, followed by Beltane, Lamas/Lughnasadh, and finally Samhain- each oriented to a part of the

harvest as is fitting for the agrarian culture from which these celebrations came.

Imbolc may also be the time to celebrate the pagan goddess Brigid (she has been woven into the Church as St. Bridget). She is the goddess of healing, poetry, of fire, of the sun, and of the hearth. Hence it's appropriate to celebrate this time with fires. Brigid brings fertility to the land. As a Triple goddess, at Imbolc, she appears in her maiden form. 

Appropriate symbols for this day are snowdrops, swan feathers, white and green candles, and if you have a hearth, of course, a fire in it. The colors are traditionally white, red, and black. Smells associated with the day are cleansing and healing-- frankincense, mugwort, and sandalwood make good incenses. I've also seen dragon's blood suggested-- where would you get that? lol

As for foods, bake bread or rolls with sesame or poppy seeds. Dried foods like raisins, apples, and sun-dried tomatoes symbolize the sun. Serving your meal on sun-covered dishes would make a good accent. 

As happens with a lot of pagan celebrations, the Catholic Church turned February 2nd into a holy day-- Candlemas. It has aspects in common with Imbolc and can be traced back to the 4th century in Greece when it was a purification holiday, celebrating the return of the light. Candles are used in its observance. 

Because of the importance of Imbolc in one of my paranormals, here is the link to it for a bit more on the celebration. https://www.amazon.com/Ever-Before-Mystic-Shadows-Book-ebook/dp/B08411KB1B/

 

Clutter

  

found this quilt photo for free on the internet

 

Most nights, I dream and often remember the dreams. My dreams are colorful and often of things I don't have in my daily life. They can range from family members, from many years gone by to sometimes people I don't know or recognize what the brain pulled together. The dream this week was like that from years ago and nobody I recognized, but it was fun and ended up giving me a message.

So, in the dream, I was about to clean up a son's bedroom while he was gone somewhere. The room was full of quilts of all sorts and colors. They were spread all over. I began folding them, putting one onto the bed but most into a closet, neatly stacked. A few were damaged and were discarded. When I was finished, the room looked great. The surprise, when the son got home (nobody I recognized from my real life). and I learned that he was thinking more clearly with the room restored to organized.

When I woke up, I thought how the dream applied to life for what clutter does to our brains. It's not just in our homes but in other areas of our lives. For instance, we can be so jammed up with what's going on elsewhere in the world, to ignore what's in our daily lives.

Clutter is a problem in taking photographs with too many images to lose the subject. Or how about with writing and too many subjects.

Basically, I took that the lesson was for me to de-clutter my life as much as I can. Not easy by the way. 

Another day another dime.

 Well,

we can't say another penny as the fed will stop making them. Does that make the many we already have worth more money someday? Probably not unless they have the right images.

My writing on what's happening globally is no better today than last week. The killing in Minneapolis has as much confusing info on it as before. So the victim has four wounds, one in the head from shot through windshield, but one hole through the windshield, not four. Others were in her chest and arm. Who shot those? There are also claims that he has internal injuries from being hit with her vehicle. What makes sense to each side might depend on where they came from in terms of partisan hacks-- either side.

Greenland seems wrong to attack but is it part of global change with new and old enemies changing constantly. Iran-- bad however you look at it. WWIII-- is it on the horizon? I hope not but so much is out of our control, but maybe not what will hurt us.

My own life had multiple problems this week from one of our beloved cats developing a limp that meant she hopped to avoid stepping on one leg. After a veterinary visit and multiple x-rays (plus reducing our bank account), there is no firm answer, but she is getting old. She came to us a stray 9 years ago. We have no idea how old she was.  She is though, much beloved for so many reasons, and we do what we can to keep her as long as possible along with the two others, with maybe a future decision to adopt to have four cats... (fingers crossed on that one).

Then, there is the farm where one of our beloved big old white oaks split off part of it to damage the home roof, destroy the chimney and send one of the broken branches down two feet. Now, that's scary. Insurance is starting to deal with it (maybe) that but doesn't make it less stressful.

Didn't they used to say another day another dollar? I don't think so anymore. 

difficult times

 For me, this is a bad time to write what I feel. I do not know all the facts of many recent happenings; but feeling, I do know that. However, might that change when more facts come out. That's the problem with writing in such a time. Besides, not knowing, I do not want to write what will doubtless upset others. Reading the newspapers does enough of that. I might write about it all someday, when more is known, but not today.

So, I dove into my archives for things I had written years ago, like in 2005. I still very much relate to this feeling for today as a way to get through difficult times. Some say, live in the moment. I also believe that, but my memories are always also part of me today.

Before that, is this quote by Mary Oliver, known by many but always worth remembering.

"“Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your wild and precious life."

 

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I have this yearning right now to be where the sky is big, the land open and not blemished by man's touch-- needful as that touch sometimes is. I'd like to smell the sage, feel the prairie wind in my hair. I'd like to forget for a moment that I am who I am and just be one with the earth. Be where the sky becomes as important or more so than the land beneath, where it speaks to you with gentle or fierce voices and you know somehow that whatever is troubling you is less important than you thought.

The closest I can get to that at the moment though is looking through my pictures, remembering the times in the Big Sky country and listening to the soundtrack to Legends of the Fall.

I am lucky the memories linger in my head. I sometimes think we only do things to have the memories become part of us, that the doing is not more important than the lingering effect on our souls. Some say live in the moment but the moment is part and parcel of all we have been and done. It's not just what we see in front of us but all that lingers within and that we can see when we close our eyes. The moment can likely never be as big as the memories we take away with us and can call back whenever we need to refresh our souls and be somewhere meaningful with someone we love.

So for just a moment I am not sitting at my keyboard but am instead at a trailhead in the Absaroka Mountains and I feel the edginess of knowing the unknown lies ahead. Might a grizzly be down the trail? A big elk? or just a view that will make me catch my breath?

A new year-- according to one calendar.

 Do you make resolutions for a calendar new year? I had some years, maybe from my 50s or thereabouts where I'd do goal statements.  I'd break them into spiritual, physical and emotional. After a few years of that I realized I wasn't changing any of it. Time to think but not write anything down.

 

Soon a new year

It is almost a new year, which seems amazing. I don't have much to say right now, but found a video I had filmed about ten years ago on writing and solitude or not. I hope I come up with something new with 2026. Let's hope for the best for this coming year, as '25 has known a lot of tragedy in the world. 

Not sure what this year was, but it was when still at the farm.

 

Aging has changed me from my 70s to my 80s so far as looks, more then for many years, but my ideas are still the same about writing and what it takes. The cat behind me, I lost a year or so later, and I still mourn her as she was that special cat for me.