It is sad situation, the world economy, radicalized political debate shouting. All to maintain the power /cash of those in control now. As a small businessman and start-up facilitator, I have been involved in ‘alternative’ energy development and the development of successful main stream commodities. Many difficulties stand between our present situation and reducing the carbon foot print, (dependence on oil or coal) and building a new strong economy, but the most significant obstacle may well be our mind set and the massive dollars spent to maintain the present situation.. If left unchecked, the carbon footprint will continue to grow, i.e., faster climate change, and the societies around the world will split even further into lords and servants… thus the middle classes will be gone again.
For the United States and the general economies, I believe the paths that work are built on facilitating the growth of alternative energy with as much push as is spent on wars. We, people of any society, have a propensity for fighting (spending) on the “wrong” wars based on the motives of those in control the media (mind set of the populations at large).
The problems are not technical, they are emotions and greed. In raising capital for the commercialization phases of new business start-up, it is rare to find ‘long term’ investment partners who really mean it without demanding excessive discount rates, and seniority rights on asset recovery. (It is just good business) … well it is not, when the operating position of society must change fast.
New jobs in solar, wind, biomass and distributed load balancing must be created fast. SBIRs and state lottery grants are nice starts, but totally INSUFFICENT TO THE NEED. A bold set of governmental programs are required. For the US it may well be CCC-like, as the dumbed-down society does not have enough of the skilled to build the infrastructure required. Other counties have been more far sighted and encouraged the engineers, doctors, tradesmen (technicians today).
I am extremely concerned that government no-bid contracts will go to the present beltway industrial masters. What is needed is a distributed network of providers that support all states. Idealism ..yes. But feasible!
It will not require special nano-technologies or invention… the Renaissance painting masters and silver black and white photography used nano-particles, we just did not have a name for them at that time. Solar PV modules can be commercially made from silicon as thin films or polycrystalline wafers at low cost with high reliability. Cadmium telluride and copper indium systems work as well. Solar thermal solutions and wind generators, as well as PV solar need power storage and load leveling systems. They exist !!!. Some will argue only as experiments…. BECAUSE it costs $$ to expand that few are willing to put forth without 20% returns. When did 20+% return become the expectation? Just as with Health Care /Health Insurance… the big profiteers need to be pushed aside for the masses (middle class) to survive. Enlightened capitalism seems to be only a memory. Failure to act now building a new economy will bring a new “dark ages”… it can not be avoided without strong action…which I do not see in any congress.
This is not communism. That will come, when the oceans rise and lights go out…..then communal living and communistic thinking will be a necessity. Look at history.
thoughts by Farm Boss
I loved reading this, Farm Boss. I completely agree with how you see our economy and future. I don't know if you or Rain have seen this, but you might like Mr. Pollard's take on the situation at hand. I don't have much hope that we will be enlightened before the coming darkness.
ReplyDeleteexcellent post!
ReplyDeleteThat was an excellent link, Robin. I hope everyone checks it out. Some say it's panic talk to look at such a timeline, but looking at history, it's easy to see how this could go. We could still do things to change it but it doesn't look like we will. It is frustrating as hell.
ReplyDeleteI have a question for Farm Boss. An electrical engineer told me that it takes more electricity to construct a Solar PV cell than it gives off in its lifetime. I find that hard to believe. Do you know the answer?
ReplyDeleteIf we had a Manhattan or Apollo type project to come up with new energy sources and distribution technology we could probably greatly reduce our dependence on oil in 20 years, but like you said there is no leadership to get the ball rolling and too many roadblocks being put up to stop it.
And is it really the wisest use of our financial resources to get off of oil quickly? Some might say no. Especially since the link Robin posted shows Debt to be the introductory cause to planetary failure and that is exactly what we are currently increasing is our debt problem. Interesting questions no doubt. I have complete confidence that human resourcefulness will save us from ourselves. Will there be some hiccups along the way, sure, but overall I think we will be fine. Especially if we can vote out everyone that is currently serving in Washington.
Hi Ingeneer.. That was true of older small crystalline solar cells. The newer 6 x 6" facilaties for crystalline or polycrystalline silicon use 0.004" thick wafers. 2 poly manufactures never go to the boule and saw method, they cast or draw directly...50% material reduction. The front and back contact systems have improved in the last 5 years to the point of 22% eff. on a high speed semi-automated line. UNFORTUNATELY>> the lines are made here in the USA..but shipped to Thailand to be run. THAT HAS TO CHANGE. It can be done, by thinking about the manufacturing process you want to run at what cost, by whom and then designing the processes to do it... and deciding that there is no tax advantage to go off-shore.
ReplyDeleteI watched HP Inkjet pretty closely. The first product was made in a way that there was not enough direct labor in it to it profitable to go off-shore. Later printheads used more complicated assembly lines and different constraints and they went off-shore when the volumes reach 200K+/mo. even Puerto Rico and Mexico were not cheap enough for a multi-national company...because Ireland and Singapore offered...land at very low lease rates, no taxes in value added, employee training and no retirement benefit or health care costs. I have been in those plants..they have day care, health clinics for the workers..etc. no cost to company. Try that here.
It is the total ecomonic and societal structure that matters.
FB
Getting off IMPORTED OIL is critical to financial security. Look at what drives the trade in-balance. oil and small mfg'd items. our core commodities of daily living.
ReplyDeleteWe do not have to stop using oil... we have to diversity of energy sources, just like we need a varied diet ..corn chips or peanut butter alone will not sustain growth for long. Take away 20% OF THE DEMAND AND COMMODITY TRADERS WILL REGROUP AND OPEC WILL HAVE NO CLUB. FB
Thanks, Farm Boss. Ireland went from being a depressed economy to a financial powerhouse in a short time period by offering tax breaks and making a strong effort to import jobs.
ReplyDeleteIreland did a good thing.. We as a country do not have to allow very opportunity for greater profit to be lost to other countries. Thailand is sending people via New York and Los Angles market promotional companies..lobbists to small companies trying to sell the same opportunities. I have gotten 2 sets of inquiry in the last 3 months and a visit from a member of the Tiawan parliament to encourage partnering with small companies to "help them grow"..we can make it for you cheaper than anybody else..give us your technolgy...:) SORRY !!
ReplyDeleteThis is not simple or low stacks games. It affects all of us in a short period of time.
FB
I agree on the imported oil. I would love for us to not need it so we can tell the despots that sell it that they can drink it for all we care.
ReplyDeleteMy comment got too large, so I blogged it.
ReplyDeleteGREAT POST, Rain & Farm Boss! We need you both running the country!
ReplyDeleteThanks to Farm Boss for sharing his thoughts. I don't understand why the whole southwest, and those of us in So. Cal. aren't using solar energy. Hattie has a great video on a solar installation they've opened on Hawaii's Big Island.
ReplyDeleteThey are tying to build large solar power arrays in Southern California, but the environmental nut-bars are fighting it by saying it will destroy the desert ecosystem. You cannot win with some of these people.
ReplyDeleteFarm Boss . . . Great blog. Must run in the family.
ReplyDeleteYes, there is a certain amount of flywheel effect that causes us to stay with the old stuff and resist the new. It often gets in the way of progress. You are especially concerned about the world's dependence on oil and coal. Your worry is hundreds of years premature. Not only are we rapidly developing machines and devices that are less dependent on either, but we are also rapidly inventing other power sources. In view of the known underground supply and the projected reduction of use, the world will definitely not exhaust the oil and coal supply.
Politics continues to divide civilization. It probably always will. The alternative "one world" concept is never going to happen. By osmossis it is necessary for various societies within the overall population to have some degree of secure borders. It is the borders that make it possible to govern the population within. Several methods have been attempted and all have been found imperfect. Governments ruled by RELIGION tend to reduce the freedom and independence of their citizens. Governments ruled by ROYALTY and by DICTATORS soon become corrupt and reduce individual freedoms and independence. ONLY GOVERNMENTS ELECTED BY THE VOTE OF THEIR CITIZENS and CONFORMING TO THE ESTABLISHED LAW OF THE LAND can provide any real semblance of individual freedom and independence.
The unfortunate note is that all of these government types are ultimately motivated by GREED. I am convinced that this is what lies behind every war, every economic collapse, and every impoverished person with no hope.
Despite all of that I do not believe GREED or the PROFIT MOTIVE is a bad thing. I think human beings advance better and faster if they are positively motivated. I do not think threats or force can do the job better, and what else is there?
Certainly and absolutely COMMUNISM is not the answer. I HAVE looked at history and found Communism to have failed by any standard every time it has come into being.
Dixon
TNX for the comments: Grey Geezer.. I think you missed part of the statement..20 - 25% reduction in imported oil will change the balance of power. The US has about 350 yrs of coal, not all good coal, but coal even some bog coal in Oregon. The VERY special little town of Lake Oswego..has an old iron ore smelter on the water front powered by bog coal and water falls. The Iron came from the upper end of the lake.. it is here and it is valuable. There several technologies to use coal and reclaim the CO2, they have a price. Some day we will use them to make transportation fuels from the coal + CO2 reduced to isobutyl alcohol.
ReplyDeleteThe profit motive is good. Allowing usury is generally considered bad...where is the line?
As the owner of geezermfg.com and a techology consulting company,I totally get the idea of making an income (profit after expenses and taxes) to live on!
I advocate communism for specific level of community development. It can not survive for a long time, nor will pure anything as form of government. Benevolent monarchies seem to have the longest reigns through out history ... and then corruption, abuse and weakness (over run) are back again. Pogo was right.. The enemy is us.
On solar.. the installation is currently 30 to 50% of the cost.
There are reasonable arguments that the US should not make panels, they specialize in installation and power storage systems. Let the Orient make panels for the world...they make the TV's etc. I do not agree with that. I think with the coming developments, we can make panels here and they can be designed and packaged such that local solar/power installers can rapidly /inexpensively install the systems. My reference... the first ink jet printhead for HP.. in 2009 they are finally shipping it to Singapore ...after 25 yrs it is still a viable product and was made in Oregon or Idaho on American tooling with American labor. You have to decide that is the goal in the beginning and focus the technology to get it done. FB
Dixon, you and I have had this argument before over your belief that greed moves men to accomplishments. It does not. It moves them to take more than their share, more than they deserve. It is considered a sin. Try this definition: excessive desire to acquire or possess more (especially more material wealth) than one needs or deserves
ReplyDeleteand it goes with avarice: reprehensible acquisitiveness; insatiable desire for wealth (personified as one of the deadly sins). Greed does nobody a favor and is not remotely required for people to have ambition and desire to accomplish something worthwhile. I don't see how greed serves even the individual experiencing it.
And what Farm Boss was referring to was that there might come a time where we have to work together in a communal way because the earth will be turning our environment into a less favorable one. If you look at tribal life, which is normally more basic to survival, you see communal principles. The idea that each man can be for himself will fail in dire times. The Israeli Kibbutzes are an example of how it can be used for a time and it can work. There have been communes here that work also but they have been rare because of the above problem-- too many people are greedy or not willing to do their share if they can avoid it. In a difficult survival situation, not doing your share can lead to death for everyone.
I am waiting for the 2 foot by 2 foot solar panel that I can put on my roof and power my entire house. When the efficiency gets to that point then there will be a serious amount of customers. :-)
ReplyDeleteRain . . . Picky Picky picky. You say "greed" does not move men to accomplishments. My inclination is to say "baloney" and move on, but since you always have good reasons for your opinions, this one is worth a second look. Yes, I do believe "greed" provokes progress but on closer consideration I wonder if our difference on this is one of semantics. I find I could substitute the word "ENVY" or "JEALOUSY" or "DESIRE FOR SOMETHING BETTER". Reading your comment and your definition of the word "GREED" equating it with a sinful excess of a persons needs, I realize that I was not thinking of it quite that way. Sorry about that. Perhaps the word "ENVY" would have more directly described what I believe to be a natural motivator?
ReplyDeleteAs to Communism. With a big "C" I firmly reject the concept. With a small "c" I can not be quite so firm. I am VERY familiar with kibbutzes. For over 10 years I represented Degania Bet and their medical silicone elastomer products division in the western United States. A wonderful company by the way. Degania Bet is one of Israel's oldest and best known kibbutzes. It is run by committee and as a business and life style it has been successful every year since it's founding. This isn't a good forumn to discuss this kind of communism further - except to say that I would have trouble living under their very restrictive rules. That kind of communism isn't perfect either.
Tomorrow is Friday. Whoopee!
My experience with innovation, which mostly comes through Farm Boss's discussions of it and what he has done and seen, is that it mostly comes out of the type of person who thinks that way. It's not really a product of wanting a lot of money or not wanting it. It's just -- hey I could do that a different way and it'd be better. The ones who take advantage of that, try to make the 'fortune' from it usually come in later and with 'greed'. Scientific innovators live for the idea. It's a calling and it's just who they are. We need more of them and it takes someone who has some training (to know what is possible) and then opportunity to think and explore.
ReplyDeleteWhen Farm Boss first went to work for Hewlett-Packard, they understood how innovation happens. They were a company put together by two men who made a fortune but also were natural innovators from all I can tell. They gave much to the community because they were such innovative thinkers and strong leaders, but they also made a lot of money. I don't think the money was the primary motivator though to begin (it's a nice icing on the cake though). They encouraged that kind of innovation in their engineers and understood how to get it. We are losing a lot of that with companies often run by bean counters with little experience in innovation themselves.
That has been true for many companies. When Disney was first taken over by Micheal Eisner, he was an accounting guy. Sure you need to understand business to run a major corporation, many brilliant people have been run out of business because they only knew their niche and not the business side. But Eisner focused too much on the business side and Disney animation quality went way down, the customer service in the parks went way down and the company was on the verge of financial ruin. Then somehow he re-instilled that they were in the imagination business and had always been the best in the world at that and the company was re-invigorated and became an even bigger entertainment giant and bought ABC. If you lose sight of what you set out to do then you are likely to fail. From what I know about HP, the company climate changed under Carly Fiorina and the employees no longer were treated with the same warmness that had been the HP way.
ReplyDeleteI'm the kind of guy who passions to try new stuff. Right now I am manufacturing my private pv panels. I am managing it all by myself without the help of my men. I'm using the internet as the only way to acheive this. I came across a really brilliant website which explains how to create pv panels and wind generators. The internet site explains all the steps involved in pv panel contruction.
ReplyDeleteI am not exactly sure bout how accurate the information given there is. If some experts over here who have xp with these works can have a peak and give your feedback in the page it will be awesome and I'd extremely appreciate it, cause I truly lav solar panel construction.
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